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WASHINGTON -- The Army and Navy will fail to commission enough new officers for the fifth consecutive year, a trend that threatens to destabilize the future leadership of the military.

The Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program, which commissions more than half of all new Army and Navy officers through college campus-based programs, is projected to fall short of its goals again in 2000:

* The Army, which hasn't met its ROTC commissioning target since 1995, will miss by 18%. For the first time since 1995, Army Officer Candidate School (OCS) won't be able to fill the gap.

* The Navy, which also hasn't met its ROTC goal since 1995, will miss by 14%.

* The Marine Corps, which relies on Navy ROTC, sets no goals.

* The Air Force, however, which missed its ROTC goal by 5% last year, expects to surpass its target number by 5% in 2000.

ROTC produces more than half of new line officers -- those who aren't professionals who receive direct commissions. Last year, 70% of new Army line officers came from ROTC, down from 77% in 1997.

The services traditionally bump up enrollment in officer training schools when ROTC falls short. This year, at least in the Army, even that won't fill the slots.

The ROTC and OCS shortfalls come at a precarious time for the military. Applications to the elite service academies have fallen sharply in the past decade.

At the same time, junior officers are heading for the doors. Nearly 14% of Marine captains left last year, up from 11.7% in 1998. The Army saw a 58% increase in captains who left, from 6.7% in 1989 to 10.6% last year.

There already has been a ripple effect.

Top officers always have received early promotion. Now, more average performers are pinning on captain's bars before the 31/2 years it usually takes to win promotion. Many fill jobs normally reserved for higher ranks. In the Army, lieutenants fill 15% of captain positions, up from just 3% in 1988.

Army Secretary Louis Caldera says quicker promotions haven't hurt the caliber of leadership: "It may not be ideal in terms of experience, but it certainly is within the range of acceptable outcomes."

Critics disagree.

"Any business that doesn't have good executives coming in has a weak future," says David Grossman, a former ROTC instructor at Arkansas State University.