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WASHINGTON -- Congressional and White House analysts are preparing budget projections that will add as much as $1 trillion to the surpluses that the federal government is expected to accumulate over the next decade.

The staggering increase in official forecasts is based on the expectation that the nation's strong economy will stay healthy despite recent increases in interest rates that could cool its growth. A healthy economy would mean continued growth in tax revenue, which would fuel surpluses.

The size of the expected new surplus estimate is so large it has the potential to alter dramatically the course of debate in this year's presidential election campaign.

The added money could allow the government to pay off the national debt on a faster timetable than either party has thus proposed, but it also could give presidential candidates and the two major parties added ammunition for their proposals to: shore up the Social Security system with an unprecedented infusion of general tax money; cut individual income taxes; and finance health benefits for senior citizens burdened with high drug costs.

Both major party presidential candidates are anticipating the revised budget picture. Vice President Gore, the presumed Democratic nominee, spent this week trying to focus voter attention on the strong economy and his claim that he deserves some of the credit for it. He also doubled the size of his plan for targeted tax cuts to $500 billion over 10 years, which is an implicit recognition of the growing availability of excess federal dollars. Gore has said he will propose creating trust funds for education, the environment and health care. "It is a brand new debate that our country has never had before on the surpluses," Gore said in an interview. "This is new territory. It's a new budget universe, and so it is time for a decision to face the big choices that we have to make."

For Gov. George W. Bush, the presumed Republican nominee, the new numbers strengthen his argument that the nation can afford far larger tax cuts than Gore has offered, and undercut Gore's criticism that Bush's plan is unaffordable and risky. Bush's proposed tax cuts would total $1.3 trillion over 10 years. "It always fit within the budget restraints, and now there's $1 trillion more," says Lawrence Lindsey, Bush's chief economic adviser and a former Federal Reserve governor. "Gov. Bush always felt it was the right thing to do, and he is sticking to it."

More immediately, the forecasts will add to the money that members of Congress will divide when they start debating next year's budget. That will reduce pressure for spending cuts in some areas and lower chances for another annual budget showdown this fall between the Republican majorities on Capitol Hill and President Clinton. However, it will also increase pressure on GOP congressional leaders from within their own party to hold the line on the growth of federal spending.

The new forecasts are expected by the end of this month or early next month from the Congressional Budget Office and the White House's budget office. The two agencies are separate and are working independently to revise forecasts, but each is on a path for a substantial increase in the projected total federal surplus in the range of $500 billion to $1 trillion or more for the fiscal years 2001 through 2010.

As recently as April, non-partisan congressional analysts conservatively projected that the government would see $893 billion in non-Social Security surpluses over the coming decade and an additional $2.3 trillion in Social Security-related surpluses. The additional surpluses in the expected new projections result mostly from non-Social Security tax collections. The new projections could nearly double the non-Social Security surplus while boosting the total federal surplus for the 10-year period to $4.2 trillion or more.

Congressional analysts previously projected that surpluses could approach that level only if Congress and the next president agree to sharply lower levels of federal spending. But those spending restraints have been tossed aside by both the Republican Congress and the Democratic White House, and federal analysts assume that government spending overall will be allowed to grow at or near the rate of inflation. The prospect of larger surpluses makes it even less likely that Congress would insist on a return to approved "caps" or limits on categories of spending that Congress broke last year.

Both parties have agreed to devote surpluses flowing from Social Security to pay off the national debt. That will strengthen the government's fiscal position for when the baby boomers' retirement will increase demands for Social Security benefits beyond what payroll taxes can support. Skeptics warn that though the economy continues to outperform expectations, big future surpluses remain only predictions at this point, not money in the bank. Any projections beyond a period of months are suspect and could be rendered worthless by an unexpected economic downturn, says Stan Collender, senior vice president and managing director of the Federal Budget Consulting Group.

"It's a little like winning the lottery this year and assuming you're going to win it every year thereafter," he says. "Prudent budgeting says you shouldn't be anticipating revenue that may not materialize."

Contributing: Laurence McQuillan and Owen Ullmann.