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USA Today

May 19th, 2000

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Invigorated Bush bounces back

After faltering in February, campaign regains footing. But governor's team is maintaining combat-readiness.

Bush holds lead

Since Vice President Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush wrapped up their parties' presidential nominations on March 14, Bush has built and maintained a modest lead in most national polls of voters' preferences. But most poll results are within the margin of error, which is +/-3 to +/-5 percentage points:

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EVERETT, Washington -- At least for this moment, in a presidential campaign that has had some wild turns, life is sweet for Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

He finally secured Arizona Sen. John McCain's endorsement, he's leading Vice President Gore in national polls and he's moving back to the political center with a series of proposals that sometimes put Gore on the defensive. Next Thursday, he could get another boost when he meets -- and poses for the cameras -- with retired general Colin Powell, probably the planet's most popular Republican.

It's quite a transformation from the dark days of February, when McCain was upsetting Bush in primary elections, the Texas governor's record-setting campaign treasury cash was dwindling fast and some Republicans were wondering aloud whether he was up to the job of nominee. But Bush strategists expect tougher days ahead, and behind the scenes, they're laying the groundwork for a hard-fought, close race in the summer and fall.

"Bush has had a very good two-month run, but these national campaigns are like the tides: They come in, and they go out," says Scott Reed, who managed Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign. "Republicans need to be careful and cautious."

Bush and his aides are confident that he has regained the sure footing that catapulted him into instant front-runner status last year. Wednesday, standing in the cavernous Boeing factory in Everett, Wash., where Air Force One was built, Bush told workers that he has always admired the presidential aircraft. "If all goes well, I promise not to spill any coffee" in it, he said with a wry smile.

Bush is a person whose moods are plainly etched on his face, and it's obvious that he believes his campaign has righted itself. He hangs out in the back of his campaign plane between stops, bantering with reporters about everything from baseball to the summer Olympics and whether they'll overshadow the campaign.

There are more tangible signs that Bush has recovered from his primary-season wounds, some of which were self-inflicted. Reporters have finally stopped asking about his visit to Bob Jones University in South Carolina, which kicked up weeks of damaging controversy over the school's ban on interracial dating and its founder's view of Catholicism as a "satanic cult." The McCain endorsement last week ended an awkward period during which the senator still seemed to be running against Bush.

Bush seems to have won the support of the conservative wing of his party even as he moves toward the center with proposals to improve education, housing and health care. His emphasis on those issues seems to be paying off; his support among female voters continues to grow.

Republican campaign veterans say the Bush campaign seems well- positioned for an inevitable Gore offensive. "They need to store up as much capital with the electorate as they can, keep him out campaigning as much as possible and showcase his character," says Bill Dal Col, who managed Steve Forbes' campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

If Gore's criticisms become harsher, as many political pros expect, Bush aides say he is prepared to respond forcefully. They've got videotapes showing Gore at a Buddhist temple fundraiser in 1996 that raised illegal donations. Other footage has Gore sticking up for President Clinton at a Rose Garden pep rally on the day of the House impeachment vote in 1998 and calling Clinton a great president. All those images could turn up in Bush's TV ads.

While Bush promotes his Social Security-reform proposal and issues intended to appeal to moderate and independent voters he'll need to beat Gore, his campaign's infrastructure is being assembled:

* Bush is replenishing his campaign treasury, mostly with mail and phone solicitations. Since March 1, he has raised about $10 million for a campaign fund that had been depleted by a tougher-than- expected primary race.

* He's also helping other party organizations raise money. In the next month, he'll appear at 14 fundraisers in key states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Kentucky, Florida and California. None of the money raised at those events will go to Bush's campaign. Instead, it will go to the state parties and to the Republican National Committee. But that cash will benefit Bush indirectly, because it will be used for get-out-the-vote campaigns and TV ads.

* The campaign is collaborating with the Washington-based committees that coordinate GOP House and Senate races. Bush will campaign for candidates in races that are close, especially in the states where he, too, needs strong Republican turnout.

* Bush and his aides are meeting with dozens of state party leaders to plan ways to motivate voters with mailings, rallies, coffee parties and phone calls by volunteers.

Dal Col says Bush must choreograph appearances by surrogates, such as GOP governors and his former rivals for the nomination, to "pound away every day at Gore."

Reed says Bush must focus on six aspects of the campaign in order to maintain his lead over Gore:

* Electoral strategy. Bush must get 270 Electoral College votes to win. To do that, Reed says, he must be well-organized in the big, vote-rich states that could go either way and will probably decide the race. These states include Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Missouri. "At the end of the day, the national polls are meaningless, and it's those states that matter," Reed says.

* The convention. The themes of the convention that opens July 31 in Philadelphia will set the tone for the fall campaign.

* Debates. Gore wants to debate soon and often, but Bush may hold off until after the conventions. Some party strategists believe he should agree to several debates because if there are only two or three, the stakes will be enormous.

* A running mate. History shows the second person on the ticket doesn't affect many votes, but Bush's selection will influence how voters view him. If he chooses a supporter of abortion rights, such as Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, there's sure to be an outcry from abortion opponents.

* California. Polls suggest Bush's prospects there are dim. But Bush allies say he must contest the state, which has 54 electoral votes, if only to ensure that Gore continues to invest time and money there at the expense of other battleground states.

* Spending. Bush needs staff in place in key states this summer.

"They need to make sure they can get it to the next gear," Dal Col says. "When things heat up, they need to be prepared."