G255
List all graphics
USA Today
January 13th, 2000
(pdf scan)Census predicts ethnic face of the nation in 100 years
Another century of growth
The Census Bureau estimates the U.S. population will more than double in 100 years. But even the Census Bureau admits these long-range projections are far from exact. That's why it releases low and high population estimates, based on different assumptions about birth, death and immigration rates each year. The middle estimates are considered the most likely. The estimates in millions, by year.
Google Chart of Graphic from XML Representation:
WASHINGTON -- One century barely comes to a close, and the Census Bureau already is looking at where the nation will be in 100 years.
Wednesday, the agency released a report projecting for the first time population numbers by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin for every year until 2100. The projections, based on current population trends, show that in 2100:
* U.S. population could more than double to 571 million.
* There could be 190 million Hispanics, six times more than today, and 72 million Asian-Americans, almost seven times more than today.
* Non-Hispanic whites could drop from their majority status -- 72% now -- to 40%. Hispanics of any race could rise to 33% from 12% today and Asians to 13% from 4%. Non-Hispanic blacks are projected to stay the same at 13% of the population.
"As we get beyond 2050, we're less confident of racial distribution," Census demographer Frederick Hollmann says. "There will be more mixed-race couples. . . . Our current perception of race is not going to be the same."
Social demographers say that Hispanics might no longer be broken out as a separate ethnic group in a few decades and that new minority groups could emerge.
* The number of people 65 and older will almost quadruple to 131 million; 5.3 million will be centenarians compared with 59,000 today.
"Anyone who claims to be able to predict with accuracy what the population will be 100 years from now is an entertainer, not an analyst," says Peter Morrison, a demographer at the Rand Corp., a think tank in Santa Monica, Calif.
However, he says the projections are useful because they give a road map to future population trends.
"We cover ourselves in a cloak of caution," Hollmann says. Each projection includes a low, middle and high estimate. The middle estimates are the ones most often used by planners and policymakers who need to worry about Social Security benefits, health-care services and the nation's ability to take care of its elderly.
The projections are based on assumptions about birth, death, and immigration rates in the next century.
Any unforeseen event, from stricter immigration policies to a war, could alter the numbers.
In 1989, the Census Bureau projected the U.S. population at 268 million by 2000. It is approaching 275 million, largely because of a burst in immigration since 1990 that the bureau could not predict.