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Honor is the reward of virtue, but what is it worth to investors?

This is the question faced by Ford Motor. Unlike rivals General Motors and Chrysler Group, Ford escaped the ignominy of Chapter 11. The company rightly has gained kudos for tapping debt markets before they closed and securing concessions from bondholders, labor and dealers without resorting to bankruptcy. In terms of U.S. market share, Ford has seen the biggest gain of any major brand during the past 12 months of turmoil, according to Barclays Capital.

As battered investors begin looking beyond the current crisis, however, Ford's remaining debt moves back into view. Its automotive business carried $25.8 billion of gross debt in early April. Factor in perhaps $7 billion of present value for nonpension retirement benefits and another $7 billion of cash burn this year. Take off perhaps $11 billion of cash over and above what is needed to run the business, and pro forma net debt by year end looks closer to $29 billion. Some $10.3 billion falls due in 2011.

In contrast, "new" GM's 2009 net debt, including preferred stock, is projected to be $16.9 billion by Evercore Partners.

That GM advantage is hard to ignore. But while it may have mostly cleared the decks, it remains an odd, state- and union-owned beast that needs to rebuild its image. John Murphy of Banc of America-Merrill Lynch estimates the company will replace just 11.2% of its models a year from 2010 to 2013. He sees GM's market share slipping a few percentage points below its hoped-for range of 18% to 19%.

In contrast, Ford looks set to replace roughly a quarter of its models every year. This should help it maintain some momentum in winning market share from its Detroit rivals.

But they aren't Ford's only challenge. Including foreign producers, Mr. Murphy estimates 166 new models will be launched in the U.S. from 2010 to 2013. That is one competitive market. Forecasts of what a sustainable level of U.S. vehicle sales will be after the crisis -- and when "after" begins -- make it even harder to assess Ford's near-term outlook.

A slow recovery in vehicle sales would hinder Ford's ability to increase operating cash flows to reduce its leverage. Investors who like Ford's longer-term prospects must, therefore, factor in the high risk of further dilution.

Indeed, Ford's stock is again well above May's share issue price. Its long-dated bonds languish at sizable discounts to par, so the company would be crazy not to sell more stock or swap more debt for equity.

Besides that looming debt maturity in 2011, GM might go public again in the next couple of years, competing for investor dollars.

For investors, there is indeed value in Ford's virtue. Just be prepared to wait.