Ryan Howard and clutch hitting

Charles Boncelet — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 19:31:56 GMT

It's been a frustrating couple of years for this Phillies fan. The Phillies management (mostly the GM Amaro) has made many mistakes, but none bigger than signing Ryan Howard to a huge contract.

He can't hit for average, can't run, can't throw, and can't field (in fairness, he's okay at catching throws in the dirt, but has no range and doesn't field enough batted balls).

But, people will say, he hits for power and gets RBI's. Let's look at the numbers:

As of today (17 August 2014), Howard is in a three-way tie for 14th in the NL with 18 homeruns through 117 games. He's on pace to hit 25 = (162/117)*18 homeruns on the season.

Is that enough to compensate for all his other failings? Not in my book.

How about RBI's? Howard is currently 3rd in the NL with 77 RBI's. That's pretty good, right? Doesn't it point to his "clutch hitting"?

No it doesn't. Clutch hitting is mostly a fiction. Players get RBI's because they bat with runners on base, not because of some mystical ability to hit better with runners one base. (If they could hit better with runners on base, why don't they hit better without runners on base? Are they just lazy?)

Howard leads the NL with 373 baserunners on base during his at bats. That's about 0.74 baserunners per at bat. It's an amazing testament to the first three hitters in the Phillies lineup (generally Revere, Rollins, and Utley).

Those runners score at a 16% rate during or because of Howard's at bat. That's currently 81st in the NL. In other words, 80 players in the NL knock in runs at a greater rate than Howard.

Howard's OPS is .676, good enough for 59th best in the NL. (MLB.com only lists 71 batters, so 59th is not very good.)

But he gets RBI's, they say.

(All data is from MLB.com and baseball-reference.com before today's game.)

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Ryan Howard and clutch hitting